Is Joby Aviation Stock a Buy Right Now?
As of October 10, 2025, Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) is at a pivotal point in its journey to revolutionize urban air mobility. With FAA certification in progress, the company is positioned to launch piloted electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) services as early as 2026 in Japan and the UAE. This makes Joby one of the front-runners in the emerging eVTOL market.
Key Highlights
- Joby has recently acquired Blade’s passenger operations, which will support its strategy to provide premium point-to-point services, setting the stage for broader market scalability.
- The stock is currently trading at a staggering 520 times projected 2026 sales, indicating extremely high expectations from investors.
The Aircraft Economics
Joby has dedicated over a decade to designing its all-electric, piloted eVTOL aircraft, capable of transporting four passengers at speeds reaching up to 200 mph, with a range of 100 miles per charge. This technology aims to make urban routes in densely populated cities like New York and Los Angeles more accessible and efficient, facilitating journeys that are up to ten times faster than traditional driving.
Market estimates vary significantly; Morgan Stanley predicts the urban air mobility market could reach $1 trillion by 2040, while more conservative analyses suggest it could be worth tens of billions as early as the next decade. Aviation Week forecasts approximately 1,000 eVTOL aircraft deliveries by 2030, gradually increasing to 30,000 by 2050.
Certification Progress and Market Entry
The FAA’s certification process is notoriously lengthy, and Joby is currently about 70% through Stage 4 of the five-stage type certification process. Completing Stage 5 would grant them the final airworthiness certification needed for commercial operations. If Joby maintains its momentum, full FAA certification could align with their goal of starting commercial operations in 2026.
The acquisition of Blade Air Mobility has also bolstered Joby’s go-to-market strategy by providing established terminals, routes, and brand recognition in critical geographic areas.
The Cash Burn Reality
Since its inception, Joby has faced financial hurdles, reporting net operating losses annually. As of June 30, 2025, the company had an accumulated deficit of $2.26 billion and held $991 million in cash, with projected cash use ranging between $500 million to $540 million for 2025, excluding the recent acquisition costs.
To fund its operations and certification processes, Joby announced a $514 million equity offering on October 7, which may dilute existing shareholders but is necessary for continued growth and development.
The Valuation Dilemma
Joby’s current stock price reflects an optimistic outlook, trading at approximately 520 times projected sales for 2026. This valuation suggests that investors are betting heavily on Joby’s future success in a market that is still theoretical at this point, given that the company has yet to generate any commercial revenue.
Investment Considerations
For aggressive investors comfortable with high-risk and long-term investments, Joby could serve as an intriguing entry point into the burgeoning urban air mobility sector. However, for more conservative investors, it may be wise to wait until Joby completes its certification and starts generating revenue before committing to such a high-risk stock.
In conclusion, while Joby Aviation presents an exciting opportunity in the innovative eVTOL market, potential investors should carefully weigh the risks and expectations before making decisions. Keeping informed is crucial, so consider checking for ongoing updates and analyses regarding market trends.
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